Assignment 2 edited
Europe’s population and gross income per capita had been on an increase with the
Industrial Revolution and before World War I. However, after WWI, this population began to
decline as people in developing countries like Latin America, Asia, and Africa having higher life
expectancies. The population in the West (Europe and America) has been on the decline ever
since. Projections suggest by 2050, the world’s GDP will grow fivefold from 2.47% p.a between
1973 and 2003, whereas, Europe will only double from 1.68% p.a in the same years. In 2050, the
contribution of the world’s GDP by the United States, Europe, and Canada will be less than 30%.
The World Bank predicts 1.2 billion middle-class people in the developing world (200% increase
from 2005) by 2030. This figure will be greater than the populations of Japan, the U.S, and
Developed countries like China, Europe, the U.S, Canada, South Korea, and Japan will
be less economically productive because of the growing older population. These figures will rise
by 2050 meaning these countries will lose a significant amount of their working population.
Factors that catapulted economic growth in the 20th century in developed countries such as the
entry of women into the workforce, college enrollment, and technological innovations are
predicted to decline in the future. In general, economic growth will be threatened by a fall in the
number of new households, new consumers, and a rise in medical bills. Public pension schemes
in developed cases are theorized to help take care of the aging population. However, people aged
80 and above will need expensive specialized care and home-based nursing which will incur
dramatic charges. People aged 60-70 and above who will remain in the working class will need
expensive procedures to maintain their health which will be added expenses.
While industrialized European, Northeast Asian, and North American countries struggle
with aging populations, fast-developing countries like Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America,
and the Middle East will experience prime and youthful populations. Developing countries have
fewer employment opportunities for the younger generation, therefore, they are attracted to aging
developed countries as laborers. Youth immigrants from neighboring developing countries like
North Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America search for entry-level and casual jobs in
advanced economies like Northeast Asia, Europe, and North America. Forces of demand and
supply severely influence the Muslim world where low economy countries will continue to have
high population growth. Improving relations between developing Muslim and Western countries
should be the main objective despite the challenge that Muslim countries have poor communities
making them vulnerable to radicalization.
UN projects that by 2050, more than 70% of the world’s population will be urbanized
meaning becoming more industrialized and service-based than agriculture-based. Most urban
cities are in low-income countries like Asia and Africa and have more than 1 million residents
each. UN projects that by 2050, the world’s urban population will grow by 3 billion. The effect
of urbanization in developing countries now will be lower GDPs compared to when developed
countries industrialized. Urbanized cities in low-income countries are likely to experience civil
unrest, violence, rebellions, and gangs. These are similar issues that arose in Europe in the 19th
century when urbanization took place. Urbanization is also a breeding ground for internal
terrorism due to increased access to communications technology and a high youth population.
According to Goldstone (2010), three major forces defused Ehrlich’s population
explosion. The present populace explosion is a result of less supreme development in the total
populace than of changes in its age and dissemination. Policymakers should adjust the present
worldwide administration establishments to the new real factors. New First World should
assemble viable unions with the developing forces of the new Second World and contact Third
World countries. The real factors of religion, culture, and geographic closeness imply that any
tranquil commitment by the First World should incorporate collaboration of Second World
nations. The G-20 is increasingly gaining importance and recognition. Goldstone 2010 writes
international establishments won’t hold authenticity on the off chance that they reject the world’s
quickest developing nations. NATO needs to accommodate highly populous developing
Population Reference Bureau [PRB] (2013) describes adolescent fertility rate as the
number of births yearly in 1,000 women aged 15-19 years. Between 1960 and 2016 in Nigeria,
the rate of adolescent fertility has been high at 100 per 1,000 births. Worldwide, adolescent
fertility rates tend to be higher in weak economic countries. The effect the adolescent fertility
rate has on the economy of a country is dependent on the extent of economic development. In
developing countries like Nigeria, the adolescent fertility rate may imply a possible decrease
within the level of per capita financial gain, higher impoverishment rates, or a decrease in
consumption per capita. High poverty rates caused by higher fertility rates may cause high
government expenditure on public amenities. Also, it may be argued that decreasing fertility may
adversely result in the economic process as a result of its effect on labor supply. This is because
lower fertility would mean a lower youthful population who are the workforce in a country.
Goldstone, J. A. (2010, January-February). The new population bomb: the four megatrends that
will change the world. Foreign Affairs, 89(1), 31.
Population Reference Bureau. (2013, May 20). Trends in adolescent fertility a mixed picture.
Retrieved March 09, 2021, from https://www.prb.org/adolescentfertility/#:~:text=The%20adolescent%20fertility%20rate%20is,her%2020s%20to%20begin
Aigheyisi, Oziengbe Scott and Oligbi, Blessing O., (2019), Adolescent Fertility in Nigeria:
Implications for Economic Growth, Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 5, issue 3, p.